By Wabusimba Amiri
There are moments in history that whisper before they roar subtle warnings that, if ignored, transform into echoes of regret.The Kawempe North by-election was such a moment.
It wasn’t merely by-election; it was a reflection of the soul of Uganda’s democracy, a test of the very values that the nation claims to uphold.
However, as the dust settled, what stood out wasn’t the will of the people but the shadow of unchecked power.
By-elections in Uganda, once regarded as contests of ideas, have increasingly become battlegrounds where victory is perceived as non-negotiable.
The heavy deployment of security forces including the Joint Anti-Terrorism Taskforce (JAT) and unidentified operatives raised urgent questions.
Who commanded these forces, and what was their true mission? Were they safeguarding the integrity of the vote or manipulating its outcome?
In any democracy, security personnel should ensure peace and protect voters. Yet, in Kawempe North, they created an atmosphere of fear, repression, and brutality.
Journalists were assaulted, civilians were manhandled, and what should have been a celebration of democracy instead showcased the tightening grip of state power.
One of the most alarming aspects of the election was the systematic violence against journalists.
According to the Human Rights Network for Journalists-Uganda (HRNJ-U), at least 17 journalists were harassed, beaten, or detained while covering the election. Some suffered serious injuries, while others had their equipment confiscated or destroyed.
These attacks raise critical questions:
Why journalists were specifically targeted?
Has the Ugandan government redefined the press from watchdog to enemy?
Why has Central Uganda become a focal point for press suppression?
Uganda’s global press freedom ranking has been in decline, with Reporters without Borders placing the country 132nd out of 180 nations in its 2023 index.
This ranking reflects growing violence against journalists, particularly during political events.
The brutal crackdown on the media during the 2021 elections set a troubling precedent, and the Kawempe North by-election followed the same disturbing pattern.
Instead of promoting transparency, security forces appeared determined to suppress information and control narratives.
The violent suppression of journalists and voters raises an unsettling question: Was this a calculated effort to secure a win for the ruling National Resistance Movement (NRM)?
The NRM’s historical struggles in central Uganda suggest that such tactics may have further alienated voters rather than securing their loyalty.
Despite widespread intimidation, the party still secured significant votes, prompting speculation about how much influence security forces had on the outcome. Could the results have been different in a truly free and fair environment?
Uganda’s electoral landscape is increasingly shaped by coercion rather than competition.
The events in Kawempe North are not isolated incidents but part of a broader trend of militarized elections.
If this pattern continues, Uganda risks eroding the very foundations of its democracy.
With the 2026 general elections approaching, a critical question arises: Will the ruling party recognize that fear is a losing strategy, or will it double down on repression?
History has a way of punishing those who ignore its warnings. Kawempe North was a whisper of discontent. Will Uganda’s leaders listen before it turns into a roar?
The growing militarization of Uganda’s elections is impossible to ignore.
- What should have been a straightforward by-election in Kawempe north turned into an event overshadowed by excessive force?
- Why was such overwhelming security presence necessary in what should have been a peaceful democratic exercise?
- Why uniformed and non-uniformed security personnel were present in greater numbers than voters?
These are critical questions that demand answers.
Additionally, the practice of transporting individuals from other districts to create an illusion of overwhelming support for the ruling party distorts Uganda’s true political landscape.
Once financial incentives are removed, the reality of political support becomes apparent a support base much smaller than projected.
Artificial crowd mobilization, coupled with violent repression, not only diminishes the democratic process but also discourages genuine electoral participation.
The NRM’s declining performance in central Uganda is rooted more in internal failings than external opposition.
Instead of fostering genuine political engagement, the party has relied on intimidation and coercion—tactics that have driven voters away.
Historically strong support bases, particularly among the elderly, are now eroding due to the party’s heavy-handed approach.
Uganda’s political landscape is no longer shaped by free engagement but by fear.
Coercion, voter suppression, and state-backed violence are not only undemocratic but also strategically counterproductive.
The NRM’s struggles in central Uganda indicate that force alone cannot sustain political dominance.
As voter confidence erodes, the party risks alienating the very electorate it seeks to control.
In the 2021 elections, voter turnout dropped to 57% a stark reflection of growing apathy fueled by fear and frustration.
Yet, rather than addressing internal weaknesses, the NRM has doubled down on excessive force, intimidation, and financial manipulation, further alienating voters.
When elections become synonymous with chaos and violence, many citizens opt to stay home, ceding the political narrative to the opposition.
This raises a crucial question: What would the results have been if security forces had ensured a fair electoral process instead of instilling fear?
The narrow margin in the vote count suggests that, in the absence of coercion, Uganda’s political landscape could have taken a dramatically different turn.
The events in Kawempe North serve as a warning for Uganda’s 2026 general elections.
Will the NRM adapt to the changing political landscape, or will it continue down a path of repression?
If the lessons of Kawempe North are ignored, the party’s declining support will only deepen, despite attempts to manipulate crowds or silence opposition.Ultimately, history remembers those who listen to its whispers before they become deafening roars.
The question remains:Will Uganda’s leaders hear it in time to avert a deeper crisis? The future of the nation’s democracy hangs in the balance will the will of the people prevail, or will power remain in the hands of the few?
Author is a diplomatic Scholar, Journalist, political analyst and Human Right activist
Tel: +56775103895 email: Wabusimbaa@gmail.com.
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